Jack M. Mintz: Both U.S. parties are building walls against Canada, too

With the votes in for the “Super Tuesday 2” primaries, we’re closer than ever before than narrowing which candidates is going to be competing in November to make life worse for Canadians. Because, regardless of who is ultimately elected, the present trend in the U.S. is for a significantly different coalition of interests both in parties – each one of these threatening to make our way of life here less comfortable compared to past.

Post-election, expect the U.S. to become more protectionist, inward looking and disquieted by global developments. Both parties now have a big part within their respective primaries supporting politicians who argue towards “wall building” – trade barriers and border security. Although the U.S. economy is healing, with a rebound in manufacturing, American politicians play to lingering memories of job losses and stagnant middle-class incomes.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is dead set from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, arguing the deal is really a Wall Street plot to consider advantage of low wages in countries like Vietnam, where labourers earn a minimum US$0.56 an hour. During the Michigan primary, he argued that Detroit’s death has been because of disastrous trade policies (translation: NAFTA).

Hillary Clinton has pirouetted from a pro-TPP position to now being against “ObamaTrade,” as a Mr . trump adviser has slyly dubbed it. This week, Clinton explained that she wants the “rules of origin” terms of the TPP made stricter because American autoworker tasks are unprotected by rules that eliminate tariffs on cars created using just 45 percent of their value from a member country (meaning the remainder might be made in China). This sticking point could effectively get rid of the agreement.

Consider the (TPP) deal just like dead within the U.S.

Neither are the two leading Republican candidates strong supporters of free trade. Arguing the American worker has been crushed, Donald Trump makes it clear he wants no part of the TPP. He has also lamented job losses to Mexico under NAFTA and criticizes China’s most-favoured nation status, and demands a renegotiation of both. Although Ted Cruz says he generally supports free trade, he wrote an article for the conservative Breitbart magazine, opposing the TPP as a backroom deal by politicians that should be stopped.

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So, with majorities both in the Democrat and Republican primaries in opposition to the TPP, consider the deal as good as dead within the U.S. And when Americans now see trade with the dim lens of lost jobs, rather than income gains minimizing consumer prices, imagine the way they will look at other trade issues in the future such as forex devaluations, anti-dumping actions and U.S. non-tariff barriers erected in the name of “fair trade.”



Other protectionist coverage is within the making. Throughout the Florida debate, Donald Trump was asked why he proposed building a wall along Mexico but not Canada. While he granted that security issues with Canada aren’t a “big problem” (for the time being), his bigger point was that the northern border’s too big, not too it had been unwise in principle. A minimum of that’s progress over the position of Wisconsin governor Scott Walker who, before dropping his bid for that Republican candidacy, supported creating a Canadian wall because 16 years back, an Algerian from Montreal tried driving to the U.S. to blow up the la airport.

So don’t believe that Canada is home-free in reassuring Americans about maintaining a skinny border. Both parties’ leading candidates argue in favour of tougher border security (mostly the Mexican, but not exclusively) including Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, despite their support for helping illegal immigrants gain American citizenship.

After Sept. 11, 2001, Canada made some progress on NAFTA-related issues as a quid pro quo for stronger North American border-security arrangements. Since President Obama’s election in 2008, Canada’s been distracted by various border-wall policies: The “Buy American” procurement plan, country-of-origin meat labelling, foot-dragging on the new Windsor