‘Mr. Saskatchewan’ Brad Wall steps up as oil economy’s chief defender

The oil crash has been rough on political leaders, but not Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall. If opinion polls prove accurate, the two-term premier and the Saskatchewan Party are sailing toward another solid majority in the April 4 provincial election.

Welcome to Estevan: The energy boom town that’s the poster child for Saskatchewan’s decline

Nowhere in Saskatchewan has got the slowdown throughout the economy – the transition from boom to bust – been more pronounced or rapid. Read on

Wall, 50, remains wildly popular despite his oil-producing province’s economic slowdown and deteriorating government finances. Similar conditions led to the defeat last year of conservative, oil-industry supportive governments in Alberta and in Ottawa and are even poking a hole in Wall’s narrative that “Sask. Party times are good times” – as Regina Leader-Post columnist Murray Mandryk recently place it.

“It is fairly interesting to watch how Mr. Wall’s popularity is constantly on the defy the chances,” said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, which has done polling within the province. After eight years in power, “it hasn’t diminished. He seems to have a real knack to be centered on the things that the people in Saskatchewan see as priorities, rather than being sidetracked on pet projects – When it comes to his election, it’s virtually guaranteed.”

He has a genuine knack for being centered on things that the people in Saskatchewan see as priorities

A poll by the public research firm conducted for Postmedia News Feb. 11 of 1,477 Saskatchewan residents shows 49 per cent of respondents said they’d prefer the Saskatchewan Party, 28 percent said they’d prefer the NDP C headed by Cam Broten – and 6 per cent said their ballot visits the Liberals; 14 per cent were undecided.

“We have got a party and a leader in Saskatchewan that has a completely different profile within the electorate’s eyes than the federal Conservatives or the Alberta Conservatives,” said University of Saskatchewan political science professor Joseph Garcea. “A lot has to do with the continuing high degree of confidence and respect for the premier’s control over the economy, and public management in general.”

Wall’s championing of issues of national importance – for example his defence of pipelines and of the oil economy – can also be playing well at home, Garcea said.

“That resonates quite strongly with a substantial proportion of the population,” Garcea said. “(Wall) doesn’t suffer the standard legitimacy crisis that perhaps Mr. Harper and (former Alberta Premier Jim) Prentice wound up suffering.”

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Since the election of Alberta’s provincial NDP and federal Liberal governments, Wall has indeed increased as chief defender of Western Canada’s resource economy, a job which has endeared him to Alberta’s right which reflects frustration along with other unmoved politicians.

In the past few days alone, he has: warned against a federal carbon tax, which he said would “kneecap” an already struggling economy; asked for $156 million in the federal government to wash up old wells in the province to put unemployed energy industry workers to work; criticized the potential federal bailout of Bombardier Inc., noting that if Ottawa goes through with it, it should also help Western Canada by approving TransCanada Corp.’s Energy East pipeline project.

“Part of his popularity is the fact that he’s this national profile, and that he is one of just a few voices in Western Canada – a minimum of now – and historically has been among the stronger ones, that will be championing oil and pipelines and anti-carbon tax,” said Maggi. However, “as time goes on, and there is more acceptance of global warming, he needs to become more careful of people’s perceptions. More and more in our polling along with other research sees that few people now deny climate change and it is impact, so he needs to make sure remain on along side it of facts. And thus far he’s managed to do this.”



That’s where Alberta’s Notley and British Columbia Premier Christy Clark have placed their brains, while distancing themselves in the oil economy.

In Alberta, Notley is paying a high price. A Feb. 17 Angus Reid Institute (ARI) analysis shows Notley’s NDP has fallen to third devote terms of popular support, and just one-third of Albertans believe Notley does a good job, down 45 percent in December. Clark’s approval rating is even lower – down three points from last quarter to 31 percent, though B.C.’s economy is robust.

In contrast, Wall has the approval from the most of individuals Saskatchewan (62 percent), unchanged since last quarter, making him the most-approved-of premier in the united states.

Duane Bratt, chair from the department of policy studies at Mount Royal University in Calgary, said the oil crash contributed to Prentice’s defeat and is hurting Notley even more.

She “came in when times were bad and they’ve gotten worse under her watch,” he explained. “People don’t have memories of excellent times in Alberta under Rachel Notley. There have been no good times because she’s so new.”

“With Brad Wall, there were lots of happy times, almost a decade of good times in Saskatchewan,” Bratt said. “(Under Wall) it was the optimum time to stay in Saskatchewan probably to the 1910, 1920s. He has that reservoir of good will. He’s also a brilliant politician. He has had the opportunity to brand himself as Mr. Saskatchewan effectively.”

To be sure, the oil price collapse has not been as damaging to Saskatchewan as it continues to be for Alberta. The Saskatchewan economy is much more diversified, a florida sales tax buttresses government revenue, and it is projected deficit isn’t as bad as Alberta’s. Two weeks ago, Wall predicted a modest deficit this fiscal year and next, along with a return to balance in 2017-18 if he’s re-elected.

The Saskatchewan election campaign has yet to shift to high gear, along with a perfect storm could yet materialize to end Wall’s reign. To date, Garcea said, “nobody seems to believe that that storm will develop.” Meanwhile, Wall’s on the job handling of the oil downturn have struck the right tone.

ccattaneo@nationalpost.com

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